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Koniec z flipami i mieszkaniami na wynajem

utworzone przez | Maj 17, 2020 | Ekonomia, Inwestycje | 923 Komentarze

           Przez ostatnie lata inwestowanie w mieszkanie było jedno z najbardziej popularnych form inwestycji w Polsce. Były to mieszkania pod wynajem jak i słynne flipy (kupić mieszkanie do remontu przez co było tańsze, wyremontować najniższym kosztem i sprzedać z zyskiem). Do tego deweloperzy budowali na potęgę. Ceny materiałów budowlanych rosły w zastraszającym tempie. Jedynym czynnikiem normalizujący cały rynek mieszkań był w miarę konserwatywny proces udzielania kredytów hipotecznych względem reszty świata. Kredyty były udziale tylko z wkładem własnym które co do zasady wynosił 20 %. Pewnie głównie dzięki temu rynek lokali mieszkalnych nie został aż tak bardzo napompowany jak w innych krajach (w szczególności Australia i Kanda). Dodatkowym czynnikiem pro wzrostowym była bardzo duża ilość Ukraińców napływająca do Polski którzy co do zasady wynajmowali mieszkania/pokoje. 

           Optymiści w tym zakresie ciągle podają dane które wskazują na zbyt mała liczbę mieszkań i dużą potrzebę rynkową w tym temacie. Dodatkowo rosnące płace również w bezpośredni sposób wpływały na wycenę tych aktywów. Należy zadać sobie pytanie kto jest tym ciągłym optymistą w tym temacie? Szkoleniowcy! To oni przez ostatnie lata zarabiali majątki na szkoleniach jak robić flipy i jak zarabiać pasywnie na wynajmie mieszkań. To właśnie oni doprowadzili do utworzenia całej rzeszy ludzi, którzy poczuli się niczym specjaliści w tym temacie po odbyciu kilku szkoleń. Chcąc ulokować swój kapitał robili tak jak wspominano w materiałach szkoleniowych. No i co? No i zarabiali! Większość z nich nie miała problemu by zyskiwać. Przez co czuli, że „Chwycili pana Boga za nogi”. Jeżeli te inwestycje nie były kredytowane, tylko sponsorowane z nadwyżek finansowych to mogę powiedzieć im: Dobra robota! Gorzej jeżeli wszystko było na kredytach. Bo właśnie teraz ten cały bum na mieszkania się kończy.  

           Sam spotkałem się również z osobą, która jeszcze niedawno nazywała się „rentierem” bo jak sama określała zajmowała się nieruchomościami. Dopiero po dłuższej rozmowie okazało się, że większość mieszkań jest mocno zakredytowana. Pan ten spędzał całe tygodnie na wyszukiwaniu dobrych ofert bo jak sam wspominał konkurencja rośnie z każdym rokiem i tanie mieszkania trzeba sobie wyrywać. Sam otrzymywałem od niego w skrzynce ogłoszenia w stylu „kupie mieszkanie za gotówkę”. Każdy z nas miesięcznie miał kilka takich kartek w skrzynce pocztowej. Dodatkowo wspomniany Pan „rentier” każdego weekendu doglądał jakie postępy poczyniły ekipy remontowe. Moim zdaniem pracował i to całkiem ciężko a nie był wcale rentierem. Co najważniejsze jego czasy się kończą.  

           No dobrze, ale dlaczego w sumie ceny mieszkań mają się zatrzymać, a nawet spadać? No to zaczynamy wyliczankę: 

 

  1. Pewna, niemała cześć mieszkań na wynajem, była na okres krótko terminowy takie jak Airbnb, Booking itp. Turystyka na tą chwile prawie cała zamarła i minie jeszcze dużo czasu nim podniesie się z kolan, nie wspominając o powrocie do dawnych obrotów. Teraz Ci właściciele nie chcąc pozostawić mieszkań pustych, będą wynajmować je na dłuższy okres co spowoduje zalanie rynku najmu lub będą chcieli je sprzedać. Wpłynie to na sprzedaż na rynku mieszkaniowym.

 

  1. Ukraińcy już masowo opuszczają nasz kraj i wracają do siebie. Nie ma co się im dziwić, nie mają pracy lub się o nią boją. Wiec wolą wrócić do swojego kraju z już zaoszczędzonymi pieniędzmi. Będzie znikać cała masa wynajmujących z rynku.

 

  1. W czasie kryzysu gospodarczego ludzie będą tracić biznesy, prace lub po prostu zarabiać mniej. W najlepszym przypadku bać się o stratę pracy. Właśnie oni nie będą myśleć o zakupie nowego mieszkania, mało tego, będą szukać ofert mieszkań jak najtańszych. Możliwe, że poniżej ich wcześniejszych standardów życia.

 

  1. Młodzi ludzie (studenci) będą wracać do domów rodzinnych gdyż bez pracy lub bez takiej samej pomocy finansowej rodziców (których nie będzie na to stać), będą zmuszeni podjąć trudne decyzje. Część nie będzie już wynajmować i jeśli będą mieć taką możliwość będą wracać pod skrzydła rodziny.

 

  1. Myślę, że w przeciągu roku, dwóch okaże się, że niektórzy deweloperzy budowali mieszkania na huraoptymizmie i wiecznie dobrej koniunkturze. Wówczas okazać się może, że zobaczymy bankructwa deweloperów (oczywiście nie wszystkich, bardziej bym się bał o tych w mniejszych miejscowościach.

6.  Mając na uwadze dotychczasowe doświadczenia z kryzysu nieruchomościowego sprzed dekady, bankowcy dobrze wiedzą, że niebawem spuchną im portfele złych kredytów, gdzie raty nie są spłacane. Wydłuży się proces przyznawania kredytów hipotecznych w bankach które będą teraz jeszcze bardzie sprawdzać naszą zdolność, czy mieszkanie nie jest przewartościowane, będą wtedy prosić o większy wkład własny.

 

  1. Czynnikiem doskonale wszystkim znanym jest starzejące się społeczeństwo. W krajach gdzie jest duży przyrost naturalny, o wiele bardziej opłaca się inwestować w lokale mieszkalne niż w miejscach gdzie przeważają ludzie w wieku poproduktywnym. Po prostu młodzi ludzie potrzebują nowych mieszkań lub je wynajmują. Co do zasady starsi już je mają / rzadziej się przeprowadzają.

 

  1. Niskie stopy procentowe. To właśnie jest czynnik, który powinien pozytywnie wpłynąć na udzielanie kredytów hipotecznych. Mało tego, możemy liczyć jeszcze na kolejne obniżki stóp. Tylko pamiętajmy, że kredyty hipoteczne bierzemy zazwyczaj nie na dwa czy trzy lata. Niskie stopy procentowe nie będą  trwać wiecznie. Więcej na ten temat zapraszam do artykułu ‘Ryzyko kursowe kredytów” (Pojawi się w przyszłym tygodniu)

 

           Rynek mieszkaniowy nie jest tak bardzo płynnym rynkiem a jego płynność teraz może jeszcze bardziej spaść. Warto mieć na uwadze, że rynek mieszkaniowy reaguje stosunkowo późno. I mimo że to co opisałem dzieje się już teraz to na ceny będzie wpływać w najbliższych kwartałach. Sam z chęcią będę się pochylać nad tym rynkiem za rok do dwóch. Istnieje również możliwość że nominalne ceny mieszkań pójdą w górę ale będą mniej wartę. Może wydarzyć się to przez inflację. Więcej na ten temat znajdziecie w artykule: Inflacja utopi nas w gotówce

           Podsumowując, uważam że domorośli specjaliści z zakresu wynajmu i flipowania mocno się na tych inwestycjach mogą „przejechać”. Ich sytuacja będzie tym gorsza, jeżeli wszystko było na kredycie. Oczywiście wyspecjalizowane firmy nadal mogą na tym zarabiać (choć pewnie mniej niż kiedyś), a jeśli posiadają dużo gotówki to wygrywają właśnie z rynkiem! Oczywiście szkoleniowcy swoje już zarobili. Prawdopodobnie będą bardzo szybko znikać ze swoimi ofertami, choć tak naprawdę właśnie teraz (no dobra za 3 kwartały) przydały by się najbardziej. 

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      To o czym piszesz jest wiadome od co najmniej 10lat , więc wizjonerem nie jesteś,teraz wkład własny będzie od 20 do 30 procent, więc sam oceń kogo będzie na niego stać.Kup kilka(kilkanaście) mieszkań na wynajem za gotówkę w dobrym punkcie dużego moze,wynajmuj kilka lat,a później możesz pisać swoje mądrości

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